Britain leaving Wales?
Plaid Cymru promised that there would be no independence referendum during the current Welsh Government term, but how appropriate was that? We could understand the political context that caused Plaid Cymru to take that position during the election campaign, but the context is not fixed, there is a lot going on in the rest of Britain and the World that could change things very suddenly.
Belfast Conference
In Northern Ireland at the end of June the region’s second republican party – the SDLP, a party with close links to the British Labour Party, held a conference to discuss the future of the islands under the heading “Preparing for Change“. The biggest concern at that conference was that a Reform government in Britain, if it happened, could force an unexpected border poll on the future of southern and northern Ireland, the British Government has the right to ask for one at any time, and that there would be no plans by the Irish Republic to cope with the unification of the island.
Among the speakers was none other than former Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford, and although he is a unionist, it was reported that he also clearly saw the danger of a situation where a Reform could come to power, leading to changes in Scotland and Ireland that would leave Wales in the intolerable position of being a “progressive pimple” on the rump UK. That would be a situation where even the people who favour the union would have to consider breaking away.
Wales Must Prepare
The obvious conclusion therefore is that we must prepare, not only for independence itself, but also for a campaign that could be initiated almost spontaneously from the point of view of the Celtic countries. In terms of the context of campaigning, Northern Ireland, like Wales, has the problem of misleading official figures suggesting that Northern Ireland cannot “afford” to leave Britain, figures which unchecked could be used in a referendum campaign. Wales is in a similar situation of course, the “Wales Office” has produced completely unfair figures which suggest a high cost to Welsh independence, so it is necessary for us to ask whether the Welsh Government will do the proper research on the true cost of the current arrangement, on what is fair to Wales? Would the constitutional commission perhaps be able to help provide data that supports a more thoughtful, accurate and constructive official answer?
The truth is that we won’t decide our destiny on our own, and it’s very possible that a Reform Britain will ask us questions before we’re ready to answer them. If we can’t take that opportunity, we could lose everything we believe in, and fail to opt for independence ourselves. If Britain leaves Wales, would we find ourselves in a kind of restricted independence similar to Belarus, or even worse would we be merged into an oppressive British state? This is what could happen if we don’t take responsibility and prepare for a campaign for independence. When will Wales be ready for this change?